A High-Stakes Gamble: How Putin Might React to U.S.-Backed Ukrainian Missile Strikes on Moscow.
In the ever-evolving landscape of global politics, one scenario that would certainly capture the world’s attention is the possibility of Ukraine firing long-range missiles at Moscow, with the explicit permission and backing of U.S. President Joe Biden. This hypothetical situation would mark a dramatic escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, transforming what is already a volatile regional war into a global crisis. If such an event were to occur, the world could expect a fierce and multi-pronged response from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Diplomatic Outrage and Global Condemnation.
First and foremost, Putin would likely react with public outrage, casting Ukraine’s missile strike as a direct provocation not just from Kyiv, but from Washington itself. The Kremlin has long maintained that Ukraine is a mere proxy in a broader geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West. This event would provide Putin with further ammunition to paint the U.S. as the orchestrator of a campaign designed to weaken, destabilise, and ultimately destroy Russia. In his rhetoric, Putin would likely emphasise the narrative that Russia is defending itself against an existential threat from NATO, invoking memories of past Western invasions into Russian territory.
Diplomatically, Russia would go on the offensive, turning to international organisations like the United Nations, demanding that the U.S. and Ukraine be condemned for their aggression. Putin would likely call for emergency sessions of the U.N. Security Council and seek the backing of key allies, most notably China and perhaps even countries like Iran, to portray the West as overstepping its bounds. By doing this, Putin would aim to shift the narrative from his invasion of Ukraine to a broader conflict between East and West, leveraging international divisions for political gain.
Military Escalation on a Grand Scale.
The Kremlin’s response would almost certainly not stop at diplomacy. On the military front, Putin’s reaction could be swift and severe. Russia could retaliate by unleashing a more aggressive barrage of missile strikes against key Ukrainian infrastructure, including military command centres, energy grids, and civilian targets. A direct attack on Moscow would provide Putin with the justification he needs to unleash the full force of Russia's military, which has thus far been constrained by international optics and strategic considerations.
This could lead to further degradation of Ukraine’s critical systems, creating widespread disruption and suffering within the country. Moreover, a more escalated Russian military response could put NATO in a position where it feels compelled to step in, either with additional military aid or through direct intervention, raising the stakes even further.
The Nuclear Card and the Threat of Global Catastrophe.
One of the most dangerous outcomes of such a missile strike would be the heightened threat of nuclear war. Throughout the conflict in Ukraine, Putin has wielded nuclear threats as part of his strategy to deter Western involvement. A direct attack on Moscow, especially one sanctioned by the United States, could push Russia to increase its nuclear rhetoric dramatically. Putin could signal that any further escalation—particularly if Moscow itself is targeted—might provoke a nuclear response.
While many analysts believe that Russia's nuclear posturing is primarily a scare tactic, any significant strike on Russian soil would inevitably bring the world closer to the possibility of nuclear confrontation. Putin might use such a moment to mobilise Russia’s nuclear forces for global show, sending a clear message to Washington and its NATO allies: back off, or face the ultimate consequence.
Economic Warfare and Cyber Retaliation.
Beyond the battlefield, Russia’s retaliation could also take on an economic and cyber dimension. With the international system already strained by sanctions and energy disruptions due to the Ukraine conflict, Putin might escalate economic warfare, especially targeting European countries that are heavily reliant on Russian gas. Cutting off energy supplies to Europe in the middle of a geopolitical crisis would send shockwaves through global markets, deepening the economic instability that has already arisen due to the war.
In the digital realm, Russia could also launch a series of retaliatory cyberattacks, targeting key U.S. infrastructure such as financial systems, power grids, or communication networks. Russian hackers have already demonstrated their capability to disrupt vital systems, and a provocation as significant as a missile strike on Moscow could lead to an unprecedented wave of cyber warfare aimed at both the U.S. and its allies.
Rallying Domestic Support: The Russian Public as a Weapon.
Domestically, Putin would use such an attack to solidify his grip on power. For years, he has justified his actions in Ukraine as necessary to protect Russia from Western encroachment, and a missile strike on Moscow would give him the perfect opportunity to rally the Russian people behind his regime. Putin could portray the attack as a symbol of Western aggression, turning the narrative from one of Russian expansionism into one of national survival.
The Kremlin has a well-oiled propaganda machine, and this moment would be a golden opportunity for state media to amplify the sense of a homeland under siege. Such a narrative would further unify the Russian public against perceived Western threats, making it more difficult for internal dissent or anti-war sentiment to gain traction.
The Global Fallout.
Ultimately, allowing Ukraine to fire U.S.-backed long-range missiles at Moscow would not just escalate the war between Ukraine and Russia, but it would reverberate across the entire globe. This act would bring us to the brink of a full-scale confrontation between nuclear-armed superpowers, with potential fallout in diplomacy, economics, cyber warfare, and military engagements. President Putin’s response, predictably severe, would be multifaceted, combining diplomatic outrage, military escalation, nuclear threats, economic warfare, and a domestic rallying of the Russian public.
While Ukraine's ability to defend itself is crucial, and its Western allies are committed to helping, allowing such an attack on Moscow would cross a line that could have irreversible consequences. It is a scenario that global leaders must weigh carefully, balancing support for Ukraine’s sovereignty with the need to prevent a catastrophic escalation.
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